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Six Months Since Russia Invaded Ukraine: What’s Next?

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People stand amid newly made graves at a cemetery during the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the Staryi Krym settlement outside Mariupol, Ukraine

Experts analyse the past six months and predict how the conflict may evolve.

Six months after Russian President Vladimir Putin began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several analysts and military experts reflect on the conflict and predict how the war may evolve.

‘They didn’t calculate that the West would consolidate around Ukraine

Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

“There is a new professional approach to manoeuvring and defence [of Ukraine’s armed forces]. Even though air defence systems, aviation, date back to the Soviet era and are somewhat modernised, their results are very high.

Ihor Romanenko
Ihor Romanenko [Screengrab/Facebook]

Putin wanted to destroy our state, remove or kill our president, and conduct a ‘de-Nazification,’ i.e. destroy our nationhood. All of these strategic goals have not been achieved – and won’t be. The nation exists, the supreme commander [President Volodymyr Zelenskyy] is in place, he didn’t fly or run away, he is leading the resistance, and the armed forces are fulfilling duties quite professionally.”

“Their plans were to take Kyiv in three days and in seven all of Ukraine. They really pinned their hopes on the agents they bribed here, spent billions, according to international estimates.

“That’s why within a week [after the war started] it was clear they would fail. Within a month, [the Kremlin] started dismissals [of top brass in Russia], investigations within the FSB system, the Fifth Department [responsible for intelligence information on Ukraine], and then the FSB decided to blame the military for their mistakes, which triggered purges in the FSB and the armed forces.

“Firstly, [the Russians mistakenly] overestimated their armed forces. Secondly, they underestimated the power of the Ukrainian armed forces, the power of defence and the popular support. And thirdly, they didn’t calculate that the West would consolidate around Ukraine.”

Russia will lose’

Mariam Naiem, Ukrainian researcher:

“I don’t think anyone can predict the exact course of the war and when it will end. The experience of the early days when some Western analysts gave Kyiv three days to fall is a lesson. But one thing I know for sure is that eventually, Russia will lose.

Mariam Naiem
Mariam Naiem [Mykyta Zavilinskyi/Al Jazeera]

“Here is why. Although some Western thinkers, especially those not familiar with Russian colonialism, argue otherwise, this war really is about Russian colonial reconquest. The unity of the ‘Little Russian’ (Ukrainian) and ‘Great Russian’ peoples have been central to the Russian chauvinist ideology for centuries. This ideology accepts limited political and economic independence of Ukraine as long as Ukraine exists within the ‘Russian world’.

“It fundamentally cannot accept cultural independence: Ukraine embracing our own language and culture. To the chauvinists in power in Russia, Ukraine’s rejection of the ‘Russian world’ is like the rejection of civilisation and turn to ‘barbarism’ and ‘savagery’, an insult to their belief of their culture’s superiority among Russian colonies.

“However, the full-scale invasion radically changed Ukrainian society like nothing else could. The longer the fight goes on, the deeper our decolonisation process goes. This is unavoidable: the engine has started and can only accelerate now. The severing of cultural ties with Russia started with Maidan in 2014 and will bloom fully into a restored Ukrainian identity. The Russian war aim of bringing Ukraine back to the ‘Russian world’ cannot happen any more.”

‘The military success the Russian leaders want is very doubtful’

Marat Gabidullin, an author and former mercenary with Russia’s private Wagner army who fought in Syria, but later fled to France:

“To a large extent, [the supplies of Western weapons] messed up the [Russian] rears, infrastructure, depots [and] command centres. It significantly decreased the amount of resources available for advance, decreased the drive for advance.

Marat Gabidulling
Marat Gabidullin [Courtesy: Marat Gabidullin]

“These days, it looks like the [Russian] forces have lost steam. Now, they actively replenish the manpower, but they do it in ways to avoid a declaration of [general] mobilisation.

“The declaration of mobilisation is unacceptable for Russia’s leaders, because the true attitude of Russians towards the war will become obvious. They support [the war] as long as they don’t have to be involved. If you mobilise them, they will run away to the [Ukrainian] forests or will flee to Kazakhstan.

“That’s why [the Kremlin is] conducting a hidden mobilisation – to recreate a certain mass of servicemen without which ground operations are impossible.

“[The very idea of going to war with Ukraine is an] implementation of an apocalyptic scenario.

“This is complete madness. I knew from the very start that their hopes for an easy victory would not come true. There won’t be an easy victory.

“They hoped to [end the war] very quickly, that’s why they called it a ‘special operation’. And one could see from the very start that they got bogged down. They got stuck. Everything went against their scenario.

“And as the Ukrainian army gets new resources and conducts active mobilisation, the military success the Russian leaders want is very doubtful. Most likely, at a certain intermediate stage they will pretend that what they achieved was what they really wanted.”

Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered a war of attrition’

Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center:

Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered a war of attrition. Neither side has the manpower (Russia) nor the weapons (Ukraine) to deliver the knockout punch.

Melinda Haring
Melinda Haring [Courtesy: Melinda Haring]

“All eyes are focused on the south and the nuclear power plant that Putin has taken hostage. Ukraine announced that it would retake the city of Kherson but it hasn’t really begun a major counteroffensive there.

“It has begun to strike Crimea aggressively and sow uncertainty in what was once a peaceful peninsula. Both sides are bogged down in the Donbas.

“If the West continues to provide Ukraine with the weapons that it needs, if the strong coalition in the West holds throughout the winter and the Germans don’t cave, and if the EU finally delivers on the promised budgetary support to maintain Ukraine’s schools, hospitals and state services, Ukraine’s got a real shot at an eventual victory.

“It will be an impossibly long slog, but Kyiv has the will to make it happen.”

‘Their advance is insignificant’

Oleksiy Savchenko, a co-founder of the Army SOS volunteer organisation that developed software for correcting artillery fire and supplied thousands of tablets and cellphones to the Ukrainian military:

“They (Russian forces) seized a large part of Ukraine, a significant one, they really damaged our economy, because the war is being waged on our territory.

Oleksiy Savchenko
Oleksiy Savchenko [Courtesy: Oleksiy Savchenko]

“But as to their failures – they didn’t do a tenth of what they had planned, they still haven’t seized the Luhansk region, there are two villages still under our control there. The [Ukrainian-controlled part of the] Donetsk region has the same borders, their advance is insignificant, and it is being liberated.

“They have united the Western community like never before – the West is united and gives us weapons, slowly, not the way we want, but they’re giving us [the arms] we had not negotiated six months before.

“And Finland with Sweden [will be] in NATO. The pretext for the invasion of Ukraine was that Ukraine is being dragged into NATO, and now they have NATO next to Saint Petersburg [Putin’s hometown].”

‘We are entering the most difficult period of the war’

Tatsiana Kulakevich, researcher on Eastern Europe born and raised in Belarus, currently at the University of South Florida:

Russia did not count on a long-lasting war and still calls it the ‘special military operation’. The state of the military is not the same as during the first days of the invasion. Russia is experiencing a shortage of trained and motivated infantry, the quality of personnel training is gradually declining. However, even with bad quality reserves and older equipment, Russia is a heavy machine.

Dr. Tatsiana Kulakevich, an expert in international security and social movements at the University of South Florida
Tatsiana Kulakevich [Courtesy: Tatsiana Kulakevich]

“Western support, especially heavy artillery like, for example, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), has been critical for Ukrainian military forces. More equipment is eagerly expected by Ukraine.

“The expectations are that Russia will organise provocations to discredit Ukraine on its Independence Day, on August 24.

“We are entering the most difficult period of the war – positional warfare, when there is no movement dynamics. Russia will be making efforts to prevent the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukraine will be preventing Russia’s forces from getting deeper into Ukrainian territory and waiting for more heavy weapons to arrive from the West.

“[Meanwhile, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko] cannot afford to send its army to Ukraine. He cannot trust his soldiers won’t defect while on Ukrainian territory. He also heavily relies on law enforcement to maintain his power, especially after massive protests in Belarus in 2020. Instead, the Belarusian government has been giving its military supplies – ammunition (whereby equipment from long-term storage is removed and given away) – to the Russian Federation.

Ukraine is determined to only start peace talks after Russia removes its forces to the borders that existed on February 24, 2022.”

Ukraine has no forces and resources to cardinally change the situation’

Ihar Tyshkevich, a Kyiv-based analyst:

“Generally, there is a stalemate. Russia can’t achieve any impressive success to force Ukraine to start ceasefire talks from the position of a losing side, and to show the [Russian] public a victory.

“On the other hand, for now, Ukraine has no forces and resources to cardinally change the situation without huge losses of manpower. In terms of the death toll, Ukraine is in a worse position because its public is more open and more sensitive to the number [of victims].

“These days, Russia is desperate to show success in the Donetsk region and to keep control of [the southern region of] Kherson.

“As of 2012, 2013, [Moscow] started calling Ukraine a ‘failed state,’ and presented the Russian army as the only battle-ready force in the region. So, the only battle-ready force in the region tried to attack a failed state. And instead of three days [to seize Kyiv] we’re talking about a stalemate in six months.

“It means that even Russia’s closest allies don’t consider the Russian army that invincible. In the Spring, Russia’s allies, partners were unexpectedly shocked by the fact that Russia was not winning fast, but now, every new failure of Russia keeps destroying the image of Russia and its armed forces.

“The war has entered a prolonged phase, and a competition of economies is going on, whose economy will start shrinking first. Ukraine’s economy is weaker than Russia’s, but in this case, what’s important for Ukraine is the existing foreign support.”

‘You can expect a longer frontline’

Alissa de Carbonnel, deputy programme director for Europe and Central Asia with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank:

“It’s really a story of over and underestimation on all sides – [for instance] the way in which the West viewed Russia and Russians, and Putin’s ambitions.

Putin’s ambition is to go as far as possible, to decapitate the government in Kyiv. From the Russian side, the story of underestimation is that, obviously, the conflict was a lot harder and more brutal and more difficult than expected.

“People underestimated Zelenskyy’s strength as the president, his ability to unite people, the resilience of people, the way in which society has changed.

“Even the West itself underestimated the amount of support that they were willing to give Ukraine even if it has been gradual, even if there are questions about the deliveries [of weapons], the continuing unity, and solidarity in the long term as we start to see the beginning of an economic recession [in Ukraine].

“I am afraid that neither side has the capabilities – financially and in terms of manpower – of keeping the fighting going at this intensity for years.

“But if we project it ahead for six months and we know how grinding things have been, you can expect a longer frontline with periodic escalations across that frontline. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will see an end to fighting after [another] six months.”

‘Neighbouring countries should be wary of what’s next’

Valeriia Voshchevska, Ukrainian audience strategist and women’s rights activist based in London:

Ukraine is holding on, and doing that quite well. We have the resilience and strength to carry on because we are protecting our own land and not just following the orders of some power-obsessed fascist dictator sitting in a bunker.

Valeriia Voshchevska, Ukrainian audience strategist and women’s rights activist based in London
Valeriia Voshchevska [Courtesy: Valeriia Voshchevska]

“Of course Western support is making a massive difference, but a key reason why Ukraine is holding on is the internal drive of many to expel the invaders from our territory. It’s harder for them because they don’t have that same motivation. I think they’ve realised how badly they messed up in the first few days of the invasion so I think they’ll go back to fighting how they did since 2014.

“The best analogy for Putin’s behaviour right now – is a person who’s in a casino at 3am. He’ll keep losing and keep wanting more – to ‘regain what he lost’. I think his failed attempt to seize Kyiv in the first few days of the invasion, the blowback from the international community paired with the crippling sanctions, the military losses as well as the mysterious explosions on the military bases – all make him psychologically operate in the ‘losses domain’.

“He’ll keep ‘playing’ until he can win back some of what he lost. All neighbouring countries should be wary of what’s next – because we’ve seen what can happen when you least expect it.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an imperialist restoration project’

Maria Popova, associate professor at McGill University in Montreal, Canada: 

“Experts on Russia have known for a while, but perhaps more political leaders and the wider public have learned two main lessons: Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an imperialist restoration project, rooted in the belief that Ukraine is not a ‘real nation’ and does not deserve independent statehood; NATO expansion and security fears were a ruse that the Kremlin used to hide its true goals.

“Secondly, there is a lot of spin and little truth in politics, but the Kremlin is particularly untrustworthy as a diplomatic interlocutor – Russia has used lies and blackmail routinely to try to achieve its goals.

“The Ukrainian army has exceeded expectations and shown itself to be highly competent, nimble, and motivated. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy has also risen to the occasion and has proven to be a Churchillian wartime leader. His communication skills and his personal valour have not only inspired his compatriots, but have increased Ukrainian soft power on the world stage. While anyone with deep knowledge of Ukraine would have predicted that the country would fiercely resist Russia’s invasion, few would have predicted Ukrainian victory in this war, but it is now entirely plausible.”

‘We are witnessing a suicide of Russia’s political elites’

Pavel Luzin, a Russia-based analyst with the Jamestown Foundation, a think-tank in Washington, DC: 

“In the past six months, we are witnessing a suicide of Russia’s political elites, and, probably, Russia as a state and as an actor in international relations. The rest is minute details, because it can no longer exist the way it was shaped in 1991 and after what it came to by early 2022.”

‘It’s only likely to get worse’

Ivar Dale, a senior policy adviser with the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, a rights watchdog:

“From a human rights perspective, indeed from any perspective, six months of war have brought tragedies and atrocities on a scale we simply could not have imagined. With so-called ‘tribunals’ of Ukrainian prisoners in the ruins of Mariupol planned, it’s only likely to get worse. Putin’s war has torn apart Russians and Ukrainians in a way that disagreements about European integration never could have. But somewhere down the road, there must be justice for the victims, and a rebuilding of Ukraine must begin.

“The disregard for the suffering of ordinary Ukrainians is what has shocked me the most. The war has unveiled a level of cynicism in Russian society that is beyond what many expected. It is hard to fathom that so many people choose not to believe, or ignore, or even condone what Russian soldiers are doing.”

‘Ukrainians do not have enough resources to start a big offensive’

Oleg Ignatov, Russia-based analyst for Crisis Group:

“We see lots of reports that Russian soldiers and officers are not satisfied with how this war is going on. If we believe these reports, the Russian army is experiencing a lot of casualties. They still haven’t captured the Donbas region, which was one of their public goals. If they don’t take over Donbas, it will be a loss for Russia, and they will need to escalate which means declaring a mobilisation or restarting its offensive.

Oleg Ignatov
Oleg Ignatov [Courtesy: Oleg Ignatov]

“The Ukrainians are very successful in destroying Russian infrastructure, supplies and command points in the occupied territories. That looks like a Ukrainian tactic right now, they’re hitting the Russians in the south, in Crimea. They want to create a situation where Russian commanders understand they need either more forces, or leave. Ukrainians do not have enough resources to start a big offensive. Another consideration is the Western countries which invested a lot of resources in Ukraine – the Ukrainians understand they need to show some results.

“Every side is waging an information war, so we should be very critical of what they’re saying in public. We don’t have good polls we can trust, so no one knows the real state of mind in Russia. Russia is a very big country and you can find all sorts of people who are ready to go and fight, but a majority are not ready for mobilisation. As for the economy, I think we will see all the negative effects of sanctions next year because Russia has a lot of resources.

“I don’t see any possibilities for peace on the horizon because both sides are pursuing opposite goals. They will be able to negotiate in the future if they experience heavy losses or when both sides understand they don’t have enough resources to continue waging this war.”

Editor’s note: Some of these interviews were lightly edited for clarity and brevity.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

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Israel’s War On Gaza: List of Key Events, Day 101

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Israel's war on Gaza: List of key events, day 101 | Israel War on Gaza News  | Al Jazeera

Dozens of Palestinians killed in overnight Israeli strikes in central and south Gaza as Red Sea tensions rise.

Here’s how things stand on Monday, January 15, 2024:

Latest updates and human impact

  • Israeli attacks continue unabated overnight killing and wounding dozens of civilians in central and southern Gaza. At least 22 people were killed and a large number injured as a result of Israeli forces targeting al-Thalatheni Street in the central Gaza Strip.
  • Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired an antiship cruise missile toward an American destroyer in the Red Sea, which was shot down by a US fighter jet, announced US Central Command (CENTCOM) on X.
  • This was the first US-acknowledged Houthi attack since the US strikes on Yemen on Friday.
  • Hamas released a 37-second video showing three Israeli captives held in Gaza on Sunday, saying they would reveal the fate of the captives on Monday and urging the Israeli government to stop the offensive.
  • The Israeli military says it has shifted to a new phase of the war focused on the southern end of Gaza, where almost 2 million internally displaced Palestinians are running out of safe spaces to shelter.
  • The Gaza Ministry of Health has said almost 24,000 people have been killed in the Israeli offensive. More than 60,000 people have been wounded in 100 days of war.

Diplomacy

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that his country will pursue its war against Hamas until victory and will not be stopped by anyone, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
  • The White House said on Sunday that “it’s the right time” for Israel to scale back its military offensive in the Gaza Strip.
  • Egypt’s State Information Service (SIS) said in a statement on Sunday that one of the biggest obstacles to the timely delivery of sufficient aid to Gaza was Israeli inspection of the aid. The statement came after Israel blamed Cairo for the delay in aid delivery to Gaza during its defence at the ICJ.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken posted on X on Monday, calling for the release of the remaining captives held in Gaza on the 100th day since they were taken by Hamas. He did not mention the Palestinian casualties.
  • Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who described herself as a “friend of Israel” to the press, will travel to Jordan, Israel, the occupied Palestinian Territories and the United Arab Emirates this week, her office said on Monday.

West Bank raids and violence

  • Israeli forces arrested 25 students staging a sit-in in protest against high tuition fees at An-Najah University in Nablus. Al Jazeera’s Hamdah Salhut reported that the protesting students received a text message from Israeli forces telling them to “surrender now”.
  • Israeli forces have reportedly raided the family home of Nael al-Barghouti, the longest-serving Palestinian prisoner, in the village of Kobar, in Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank.
  • The Israeli army said on Friday that it killed three Palestinian men who infiltrated a West Bank settlement and fired upon soldiers.
  • The Israeli military killed two Palestinians after accusing them of ramming their car through a checkpoint near Hebron.
  • Local sources reported that Israeli forces bulldozed two Palestinian-owned houses during a Sunday midnight raid in the city of Qalqilya, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.
  • Armed Israeli settlers broke into the village of Burin, south of Nablus, and attacked Palestinian residents’ houses and properties after midnight on Sunday, Wafa reported.
  • “Violent raids and arrests have become part of the fabric of daily life in the occupied West Bank,” Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Jamjoom, reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, said. At least 347 Palestinians have been killed and thousands have been arrested since October 7.

 

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES
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Hamas Says Will Kill Hostages if Israeli Attacks On Gaza Civilians Continue

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Flames and smoke billow during Israeli attacks against Gaza on October 9, 2023

Human Rights Watch terms Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s call for a ‘complete siege’ on Gaza a ‘war crime’.

The Hamas movement has threatened to kill an Israeli hostage every time Israel bombs a Palestinian home without warning as Israel mobilised some 300,000 reservists and imposed a total blockade of the Gaza Strip, denying the enclave’s millions of residents access to food, water and fuel.

The warning from Hamas came on Monday as the death toll from the armed group’s surprise weekend attack climbed to 900 in Israel and revenge attacks by Israeli forces on the besieged Gaza Strip killed more than 700 people and left some 3,700 others wounded.

Residential apartment blocks, hospitals, schools and a mosque have been among the sites attacked by Israeli fighter jets, artillery and drones, according to media reports and witnesses.

Hamas spokesperson Abu Ubaida issued the threat to kill Israelis from the dozens held captive by the armed group. He said an Israeli hostage would be killed for every Israeli bombing of a civilian house without warning.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said more than 100 people were taken captive by Hamas during the deadly cross-border incursion over the weekend.

As Israeli forces conducted intense retaliatory attacks on Gaza on Monday, Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant drew international condemnation by announcing a total blockade of the densely populated and besieged enclave, which is home to 2.3 million people.

Gallant said Israel would impose a “complete siege” on Gaza. “No electricity, no food, no water, no gas – it’s all closed.”

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply distressed” by the siege announcement and warned that Gaza’s already dire humanitarian situation will now “only deteriorate exponentially”.

A mourner carries the body of Palestinian boy Saad Lubbad, who health officials said was killed in Israeli strikes, during his funeral in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa
A mourner carries the body of Palestinian boy Saad Lubbad, who health officials said was killed in an Israeli attack, during his funeral in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on October 9, 2023 [Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters]

Guterres also said some 137,000 people were taking shelter with the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) at schools across Gaza.

UNRWA said on Tuesday that almost 190,000 people have been displaced in Gaza amid the Israeli attacks and the figure is expected to grow further as the violence intensifies.

Nearly half a million people have also not received food rations this week in Gaza as UN food distribution centres have been forced to remain closed amid the Israeli onslaught, UNRWA said.

Human Rights Watch said Israel’s total blockade on the necessities of life for everyday people in Gaza was a war crime.

“Defense Minister Gallant’s statements are abhorrent,” Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.

“Depriving the population in an occupied territory of food and electricity is collective punishment, which is a war crime, as is using starvation as a weapon of war. The International Criminal Court should take note of this call to commit a war crime,” he said.

Shakir also condemned the threat by Hamas to kill hostages, warning that such action was also a war crime.

“All hostages should be safely released to their families,” he said.

On the diplomatic front, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Hamas and Israel to immediately end violence and protect civilians, the Egyptian presidency said.

Erdogan urged Israel against “indiscriminately” attacking civilians and delivered measured criticism of Hamas, urging both sides to respect the “ethics” of war.

The United Kingdom, French, German, Italian and US governments issued a joint statement on Monday recognising the “legitimate aspirations” of the Palestinian people and supporting equal measures of justice and freedom for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

INTERACTIVE_DEATH_TOLL_INJURED_ISRAEL_PALESTINE_OCT10_2023_0415
They said they would remain “united and coordinated” to ensure Israel can defend itself.

But the prospect that fighting could spread also alarmed the region and the world.

Lebanese armed group Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel in response to at least three of its members being killed in Israeli shelling of Lebanon.

Israel said one of its deputy commanders was also killed in an earlier cross-border raid from Lebanon.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES


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Western Leaders Accused of Hypocrisy Over Response To Palestine, Ukraine

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US President Joe Biden holds a bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly in New York City, the US, September 20, 2023

Social media users, including journalists and observers, are calling out what they call a ‘double standard’.

After Saturday’s surprise attack by the Palestinian group Hamas on Israel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took to the social media platform X to offer “condolences go out to everyone who lost relatives or close ones in the terrorist attack”.

He also stated, “Israel’s right to self-defence is unquestionable.”

Many world leaders, including US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, shared similar sentiments.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated, “Israel has the right to defend itself – today and in the days to come. The European Union stands with Israel.”

Accusations of Western ‘double standards’

Some social media users have criticised these statements, saying they highlight a double standard.

Ukraine’s right to defend itself is praised by most international leaders while Russia’s invasion is condemned, but commentators said the same cannot be said about Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza.

Aaron Bastani, a leftist British journalist, said on X that there’s a “clear double standard in endorsing terrorism against civilian targets in Ukraine … and condemning it by Palestinians”.

Many users said Western diplomats and media support the Ukrainians who defend their land, but label the Palestinians fighting against Israel as “terrorists”.

https://twitter.com/KhaledBeydoun/status/1710787817415082349?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1710787817415082349%7Ctwgr%5E6acf829869e993177f32aa38aa48c02f38cb7f61%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2023%2F10%2F9%2Fwestern-leaders-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-response-to-palestine-ukraine

An illustration of a woman’s face, in which one eye is closed beside a Palestinian flag, and one eye open beside a Ukrainian flag, has been regularly shared as a symbol of the West’s alleged double standards in how the two conflicts are viewed.

https://twitter.com/OnlinePalEng/status/1710994682883273172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1710994682883273172%7Ctwgr%5E6acf829869e993177f32aa38aa48c02f38cb7f61%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2023%2F10%2F9%2Fwestern-leaders-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-response-to-palestine-ukraine

Clips also emerged on social media from a CNN interview with Mustafa Barghouti, the general secretary of the Palestinian National Initiative, in which he posed the rhetorical question, “Why does the United States support Ukraine in fighting occupation – while here they support the occupier, who continues to occupy us?”

It is not the first time Western nations have been accused of double standards in their stance on the Ukraine war.

Earlier in the year, Amnesty International published a report highlighting the West’s “double standards” on global human rights.

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty’s secretary-general, told Al Jazeera at the time that the occupation of Palestinian territory was a “particularly important one”.

“Without making any comparison between Russia’s aggression and Israel … it is clear the Palestinian people are under a regime of oppression – a regime of occupation and a regime of apartheid,” Callamard told Al Jazeera.

Over the last three days, X users recirculated earlier statements calling out what they called Western hypocrisy, sharing video by the Irish lawmaker Richard Boyd Barrett from March 2022 in which he berated the Irish government’s double standards regarding Ukraine and Palestine:

“You’re happy to use the most strong and robust language to describe the crimes against humanity of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin, but you will not use the same strength of language when it comes to describing Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians.”

Barrett on Sunday again called out what he described as “shocking double standards of Western leaders supporting Ukraine resistance but condemning Palestinian[s].”

Meanwhile, others warned against comparing conflicts.

https://twitter.com/denfordauthor/status/1710993737738768607?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1710993737738768607%7Ctwgr%5E6acf829869e993177f32aa38aa48c02f38cb7f61%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2023%2F10%2F9%2Fwestern-leaders-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-response-to-palestine-ukraine

And some cautioned that Hamas and the Palestinians should not be seen as one and the same.

Ukrainian footballer Oleksandr Zinchenko, who plays for Arsenal, posted on Instagram, stating he “stands with Israel”.

Zinchenko has been a vocal supporter of his home country in its ongoing defence against Russia, and he participated in a Game4Ukraine charity match in London earlier this year to raise money for Ukraine.

After online backlash, with some questioning an alleged double standard in his support of Israel, the footballer removed the post and switched his social media account to private.

Several people claimed that Zinchenko’s football club, in not responding to his comments, was guilty of hypocrisy after they had distanced themselves from former player Mesut Ozil’s comments in 2019 over alleged human rights abuses against Uighur Muslims in China.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
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